Russia launched an experimental, offensive missile into Ukraine, aimed at the PA Pivdenmash (former Yuzhmash) factory. This is a new world of missile combat, as this looks to be the first use of an IRBM (though not at IRBM ranges) and possibly MIRV (though conventional!) in combat.  Jeffrey and Aaron talk about Russia’s new Oreshnik …

The legendary Fred Kaplan joins Jeffrey to talk about his brand new novel, A Capital Calamity.  Fred and Jeffrey talk through the Fred’s experiences in nuclear strategy and the influences on his new novel, A Capital Calamity, from JFK’s EXCOMM tapes, the MX basing debate, and the Jane Austin meets Dr. Strangelove comedy of DC …

An absolutely massive mobile ballistic missile was paraded in North…. …wait sorry…. South Korea. Force of habit.    Decker joins Jeffrey to talk about the absolute unit that the ROK just showed off. But don’t worry, it’s just an “SRBM with an eight ton warhead,” nothing to see here. The team talks about messaging, move/countermoves on the …

China tested an ICBM deep into the Pacific Ocean, instead of short-shooting it into PRC deserts.  Decker Eveleth joins Jeffrey to talk about why this is a fascinating change in behavior for the PLA Rocket Force and PRC in general. China has only ever done this twice before, both over 40 years ago, back in …

Iran just launched what may be the largest single missile raid in history, and Israel claims no Israeli deaths. While we’re still very early in the news cycle, Jeffrey and Aaron start picking apart the information available to look at what we can learn about the state of the Iranian offensive missile arsenal, weight what …

Friend of the Pod Decker Eveleth found the Burevestnik deployment site, it seems! Decker, of the CNA Corporation, has tracked down what appears to be the deployment site of the 9M730 Burevestnik, aka the SSC-X-9 Skyfall, using Planet Labs satellite imagery. It appears to be about 300 miles north of Mosco, near a national-level nuclear …

Tom Schelling described escalation as a “curved slope” where you won’t be able to predict when the final drop occurs, and Ukraine targeting an early warning radar in Russia certainly is at least a few steps down that slop. Jeffrey and Aaron sit down at the intersection of “legitimate conventional military target” and “direct cause …

Jeffrey and his team have been OSINT’ing the heck out of the deployment of the Typhon Strategic Mid-Range Fires (SMRF) ((Typhon Smurf?)) to the Philippines, and tracked down the airport and deployment zone. Recently the U.S. Army deployed the new Typhon SMRF system to the Philippines as part of an exercise, raising the ire of …

We have data! Jeffrey and Aaron walk through the new primary source data to figure out if either Iran’s missile raid or Israeli’s missile defense efforts were effective. This appears to be the first time that successful wartime ballistic missile defense intercepts can be validated via open source means, which is a major step forward …

And you may find yourself not complying with the IAEA And you may find yourself in a war in another part of the world And you may find yourself making a metaphor about an automobile And you may find yourself enriching your uranium stocks, and building reactors And you may ask yourself “Well, how did I …