Sanctions relief is a super important part of the Iran deal. It can also be kind of boring. We know boring. We study arms control verification, for pete’s sake.
But it’s still super important. Jeffrey and Aaron are joined by Sam Cutler, policy advisor at Ferrari & Associates, P.C., in a special joint Arms Control Wonk and Sanction Law podcast. You might even say it’s s Joint Comprehensive Podcast. Special bonus: Jeffrey and Aaron help Sam develop some sanction law related pickup lines.
Links:
On the escalatory measures, in the end it all comes down to political will to begin to escalate things for small violations. Every time you do reimpose sanctions, even minor ones for minor violations, it puts the future of the deal at risk. In order to effectively escalate and enforce the deal the US must be willing to kill the deal over small violations. Also, if in 5-7 years and the status quo is Iranian compliance and the EU is living fat off Iranian oil and goods you may be looking at a EU very unwilling to reimpose sanctions to enforce the deal.
I also do not trust this Administration to escalate the situation and I do not trust some future administrations (especially on the GOP side) to escalate according to the severity of violations. I can definitely see them overreacting to small violations.
I just worry Iran will incrementally cheat and toe the line just enough to not provoke sanctions reimposition, much like they have with respect to their nuclear program or sponsorship of terrorism; going just far enough not to provoke military action.
Sure, but that’s an argument that any policy toward Iran will fail. So it’s “trivial” in the sense that, even absent a deal, you have to worry about cheating Iranians, greedy Euros, feckless Democrats and war-mongering Republicans.
My point is the deal is a tool that makes it slightly less likely this collection of idiots gets us all killed.