Russia launched an experimental, offensive missile into Ukraine, aimed at the PA Pivdenmash (former Yuzhmash) factory. This is a new world of missile combat, as this looks to be the first use of an IRBM (though not at IRBM ranges) and possibly MIRV (though conventional!) in combat.  Jeffrey and Aaron talk about Russia’s new Oreshnik …

The legendary Fred Kaplan joins Jeffrey to talk about his brand new novel, A Capital Calamity.  Fred and Jeffrey talk through the Fred’s experiences in nuclear strategy and the influences on his new novel, A Capital Calamity, from JFK’s EXCOMM tapes, the MX basing debate, and the Jane Austin meets Dr. Strangelove comedy of DC …

China tested an ICBM deep into the Pacific Ocean, instead of short-shooting it into PRC deserts.  Decker Eveleth joins Jeffrey to talk about why this is a fascinating change in behavior for the PLA Rocket Force and PRC in general. China has only ever done this twice before, both over 40 years ago, back in …

An absolutely massive mobile ballistic missile was paraded in North…. …wait sorry…. South Korea. Force of habit.    Decker joins Jeffrey to talk about the absolute unit that the ROK just showed off. But don’t worry, it’s just an “SRBM with an eight ton warhead,” nothing to see here. The team talks about messaging, move/countermoves on the …

Iran just launched what may be the largest single missile raid in history, and Israel claims no Israeli deaths. While we’re still very early in the news cycle, Jeffrey and Aaron start picking apart the information available to look at what we can learn about the state of the Iranian offensive missile arsenal, weight what …

Friend of the Pod Decker Eveleth found the Burevestnik deployment site, it seems! Decker, of the CNA Corporation, has tracked down what appears to be the deployment site of the 9M730 Burevestnik, aka the SSC-X-9 Skyfall, using Planet Labs satellite imagery. It appears to be about 300 miles north of Mosco, near a national-level nuclear …

Tom Schelling described escalation as a “curved slope” where you won’t be able to predict when the final drop occurs, and Ukraine targeting an early warning radar in Russia certainly is at least a few steps down that slop. Jeffrey and Aaron sit down at the intersection of “legitimate conventional military target” and “direct cause …

Jeffrey and his team have been OSINT’ing the heck out of the deployment of the Typhon Strategic Mid-Range Fires (SMRF) ((Typhon Smurf?)) to the Philippines, and tracked down the airport and deployment zone. Recently the U.S. Army deployed the new Typhon SMRF system to the Philippines as part of an exercise, raising the ire of …

We have data! Jeffrey and Aaron walk through the new primary source data to figure out if either Iran’s missile raid or Israeli’s missile defense efforts were effective. This appears to be the first time that successful wartime ballistic missile defense intercepts can be validated via open source means, which is a major step forward …

And you may find yourself not complying with the IAEA And you may find yourself in a war in another part of the world And you may find yourself making a metaphor about an automobile And you may find yourself enriching your uranium stocks, and building reactors And you may ask yourself “Well, how did I …

William Alberque joins Jeffrey for a friendly and deep debate about the Russian Navy nuclear documents leaked to FT, covered in our previous episode. This is a fascinating discussion not only on the documents themselves, but what they imply for Russia’s view of its own territorial integrity, what it needs to convince its soldiers to …

Max Seddon and Chris Cook with the Financial Times have written an excellent piece on leaked Russian Naval documents that FT saw, focused on thresholds for Russian nuclear use, especially in a war scenario with China.  Jeffrey and Aaron go through what the documents reveal and debate if they’re generally consistant with what is understood …

Road trip to Vegas. As part of an NGO transparency visit, NNSA opened up the Nevada Test Site to a group of international nuclear weapons experts, including one Dr. Jeffrey Lewis. Jeffrey goes through what he saw: P Tunnel, The BEEF, and the crown jewel, U1a. This was an NNSA exercise in transparency, aimed at …

Shoigu went shopping.  Russia is buying KN-23 and KN-25 missiles from North Korea and launching them in support of its invasion of Ukraine. Imagery from on the ground clearly shows North Korean style solid-propellant missiles. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about what this means for global ballistic missile proliferation, possible South Korean responses, and the continued …

North Korea finally got a reconnaissance satellite into orbit, after several failed prior attempts! While it is a little rough around the edges, every program has to start somewhere. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the implications of the DPRK’s reconnaissance satellite, the relationship of the DPRK missile and space programs, and the importance of high …

Take a listen to the latest season of Jeffrey Lewis’s podcast, The Reason We’re All Still Here Far too often, governments behave like toddlers. They’re fickle. They don’t like to share. And good luck getting them to pay attention to any problem that isn’t directly in front of them. They like to push each other to …

Looks like everyone is preparing for a party.  Between Russia’s potential un-signing of a nuclear test treaty, threats to test “if the United States does,” and refurbishments at Novaya Zemlya, things aren’t looking great for the longevity of nuclear test ban norms. China and the U.S. have been modernizing too, though the U.S. has offered …

Sam Lair joins the podcast to talk about Kim Jong Un’s recent whirlwind tour of the North Korean Defense Industrial Base with Jeffrey and Scott. If you’re into missiles, geolocation, and machine tools (and, if you listen to this podcast, you probably are), you’re going to want to tune in. Sam and Jeffrey have been …

Jeffrey is joined by the illustrious Kelsey Atherton to discuss Christopher Nolan’s film Oppenheimer, as well as the history and legacy of the titular man himself. Kelsey and Jeffrey dive into the choice to focus on Oppenheimer’s own security legacy and bypass the direct and indirect horrors affected upon the Congolese miners, New Mexicans, and Japanese …

Jeffrey is back from Hiroshima, where he participated in a Track 2 nuclear dialogue. The outlook for near-term arms control is still grim. Jeffrey and Aaron unpack the G7 statements on disarmament that the Japanese representatives wanted to re-affirm, the tacit condemnation of Russian and Chinese contained within, and the global theater around narrative control …

Germany has a gap that needs to be filled in the face of Russian threats. But this time it isn’t Fulda, it is….the exoatmospheric layer of ballistic missile defenses? Jeffrey and Aaron try to understand Germany’s decision to buy the very fancy Israeli/American Arrow-3 exoatmospheric BMD system, in absense of a specific Russian missile system …

Jeffrey is back from Japan and North Korea’s satellite-turned-submarine is back from the bottom of the ocean! North Korea’s failed Chollima-1 space launcher and its payload, the Malligyong-1, failed to reach space on May 30. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the Japanese response to the launch, the North Korean reponse to the failure, and whether or not …

Ankit Panda joins Jeffrey by the every so fancy pool at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where they talk about competing speeches and messaging, the views on US-China competition from Southeast Asia, and about how Jeffrey didn’t make any new friends in the PLA this year. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Ukraine is getting the SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow cruise missile, and that’s raising a whole lot of questions about MTCR guidelines  Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the history of the Missile Technology Control Regime, what it was meant to originally address, and the whole host of problems associated with figuring out what a destabilizing cruise missile really …

President Yoon of South Korea recently visited the United States to talk nukes and Don McLean with President Biden. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through what the Declaration actually covers, how much was material and how much was fluff, and the moonwalking capabilities of the D5 SLBM.  Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

FINALLY.  After almost a decade of hinting and teasing and parading fake empty canisters, North Korea has debuted its long-awated solid propellant ICBM. And the team have some questions about where the construction and testing sites were…   Jeffrey, Scott, and Dave descend upon the CNS DC offices for a rare in-person podcast to commemorate …

The IAEA is doing a great job with the s**t we’re handing them. A very jetlagged Jeffrey joins Aaron to talk about the IAEA and the very positive role that Director General Rafael Grossi has played in trying to hold together the nuclear situation with Iran. JCPOA-holdover cameras, discontinuity in footage, and a bunch of …

New START has been in peril for years. The first episode of the pod was about the INF Treaty being in danger, and here we are, 8 years later, with almost no arms control treaties left. Maybe it is time to rename the pod Arms Race Wonk, because the next few years are going to …

Jeffrey, Aaron, and Scott say the unthinkable: we’re a little tired of the parades. But we’re glad the youthes are still ordering pizza and crowding around the computer to watch.  North Korea paraded at least 15 ICBMs, including 4 that were clearly meant to look like solid-propellent ICBMs. We’ve been down this road before, they’ve …

Both plan on going first, but… President Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea is being piled on for discussing South Korean pursuits of nuclear weapons (although what he said *exactly* was distorted a little). In the face of increasing pressure to respond to North Korea’s nuclear posture, South Korea is realistically pursuing capabilities for rapid, precision …

Tyler Nighswander and Mike Nute have developed an incredible tool for detecting long-range missile and space launches by processing and visualizing ionospheric disturbances in GPS data.  In one of the most fascinating and technically complex episodes of the ACW pod, Tyler and Mike join Jeffrey to talk about their wild new open-source intelligence tool, how …

Jeeze that was a big missile. North Korea has tested another large ICBM, and this one was (another) doozy. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through modelling this missile, the potential theft of missile tech from Ukraine, Kim Jong Un’s Bring Your Daughter to Work Day, and the incredible Missile Launch Detection tool that @tylerni7 and @michaelnute …

The Biden administration has been working to re-kindle New START talks with Russia, while working to deter Russian WMD use in Ukraine, in an era that increasingly appears to be about risk management instead of risk reduction. How do you restart heavily managed talks in an era of COVID restrictions? How do you do on-site …

Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch …

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is giving people brain worms. Multiple terrible reports, citing oSiNt aNaLyStS, have recently been released and grossly overexaggerated the risk of nuclear weapons use around Ukraine. These reports, particularly about the “nuclear weapons convoy headed towards Ukraine,” don’t help anyone and just add noise to a chaotic narrative.  Jeffrey and …

Does North Korea have a triad? Perhaps a boostrapped, janky triad? How mature is their arsenal at this point? North Korea lobbed a Hwasong-12 over Japan after a week of smaller missile tests, and sparked a testy exchange of missile tests and aircraft scramblings. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about missile overflights, what it means to …

What the heck is going on with the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Planet? Aaron and Jeffrey walk through the safety situation, the open source assessments of what is going on, and what appears to be a Russian strategy to….steal a power plant? Links of Note: Russia Tries to Steal a Nuclear Power Plant, Cheryl Rofer   …

Why isn’t North Korea testing nukes? What are the signals and signs that precede a test?  Jeffrey and Aaron talk testing indicators, the logistics of detonating a nuclear device in North Korea, and the proper use of the Chatham House Rule… The team talks about the impact of Michael Krepon on the field and on …

As the President visited various states in the Middle East, Jeffrey and Aaron sat down to eulogize the JCPOA renegotiation attempts as they slowly slide farther off the rails. Iran’s programs continue and it looks like the U.S. is preparing to continue into the sanctions and containment realm, as Israel continues its seemingly ineffective hardware …

Jeffrey and Aaron walk through a piece of foundational field canon, The Wizards of Armageddon by Fred Kaplan, discussing its coverage of institutional and personal decisionmaking, picking apart the concepts of deterrence and compellence, and discussing the seemingly crystalized debate on the same core tenets, decades after the initial events.  Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

After a brief hiatus due to Jeffrey’s house catching on a lil’ bit of fire, the Arms Control Wonk team is back to take a look at North Korea’s triple missile launch and looming possible nuclear test.  Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the North Korean nuclear testing schedule, the expectations of precision that open source intelligence …

The U.S. has unilaterally committed to not conducting destructive anti-satellite missile tests! Jeffrey and Aaron walk through what the U.S. has actually normatively committed to, what this means for potential future attempts at arms control in space, and some of the institutional hurdles the U.S. must overcome for a long-lasting commitment to space-based arms control. …

Gerry Doyle and Blake Herzinger join Jeffrey to talk about their new book: Carrier Killer: China’s Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles and Theater of Operations in the early 21st Century. The group sits down to talk through China’s DF-21D and DF-26 missiles. Do they work? What do they do? What can they actually accomplish? How do navies …

…get a pod.  North Korea has conducted three (and, as I’m typing this, apparently four), ICBM (or ICBM element) tests, with two labelled as “satellite” system tests.  Jeffrey and Scott talk through an OSINT Oreo: Good OSINT to identify ICBM tests, BAD OSINT claiming that some agricultural fields were missile support areas, and then more good …

Should we be worried that Russia may intentionally use nuclear weapons in Ukraine?  Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the role nuclear weapons, conspiracy theories, and misinformation play within conventional wars and escalation dynamics.  Aaron posits the Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence, wherein an individual actor’s rationality can be gauged by the company they keep.  Support us …

Russia has invaded Ukraine, and some folks are arguing that Ukraine could’ve deterred Russia “if it had never given up nuclear weapons.” But they never “had” nuclear weapons. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the control of nuclear weapons in Ukraine during the Cold War, and the “return” of those weapons to Russia after the fall …

Jasmine Owens, Lead Organizer and Policy Coordinator at the Physicians for Social Responsibility, joins Jeffrey to discuss social justice and nuclear weapons. Jasmine and Jeffrey attack the tough issues facing culture within the nuclear security field, embedded bias, and the disproportionate impact these weapons have on minority and oppressed communities.  Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Dr. Michal Onderco, Associate Professor of International Relations in the Department of Public Administration and Sociology at Erasmus University Rotterdam, joins Jeffrey to talk about his new book, Networked Nonproliferation: Making the NPT Permanent.  Dr. Onderco and Jeffrey talk about the history of the NPT extension, interpersonal relationships in diplomacy, and the methods and study …

After North Korea tested its new MaRV twice, a bunch of weird news stories suddenly started breaking about U.S. responses. Flights were grounded in parts of the West Coast, there was a shelter in place order up at the missile defense site in Alaska, and it seemed like someone may have mistook the North Korean …

North Korea tested what appears to be a maneuverable reentry vehicle (MaRV), which could support a tactical nuclear mission and subvert ballistic missile defenses. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the difference between a MaRV and a hypersonic glide vehicle, discuss the development of the DPRK missile industry, and walk through North Korea’s tactical nuclear ambitions.  …

North Korea seems to be taking its new, small, solid propellant missiles to the sea, after taking them to the show. Perennial friend of the pod and aficionado of all things submarine Joseph Dempsey of the International Institute of Strategic Studies returns to talk to Jeffrey about what it is that the DPRK tested this …

This is a complicated one. According to Demetri Sevastopulo at the Financial Times, China tested something that sounds a whole lot like FOBS with an HGV. Something that orbited the globe and dropped a hypersonic glide vehicle against a target.  Jeffrey, Aaron, and Scott try to figure out what actually was tested (HGV-FOBS? An intercontinental …

Glide or die, baby.  The North Koreans, on a real cavalcade of missile debuts reminiscent of 2017, have tested what they claim to be a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV). Which means they are just checking off their list of goals, leaving a nuclear powered submarine, a MIRV, and a solid propellant ICBM as the main …

Put another pot of coffee on because it is launch week again. North Korean launched two missiles off of the back of a train this week, right as the president of South Korea watched their own tests of a submarine launched ballistic missile, stealthy air launched cruise missile, ballistic missile test, supersonic anti ship cruise missile …

The DPRK tested a cruise missile, but this time it was a big one. Like “INF Treaty” big, if that term still meant anything.  The DPRK announced that it launched a 1500 km range cruise missile, after months of hints that a strategic nuclear-capable cruise missile was in the works. While it technically does not …

Looks like Yongbyon is running a little hot. The IAEA has announced that it believes the DPRK is conducting a plutonium reprocessing campaign at Yongbyon.  Jeffrey and Aaron discuss why the DPRK would want to do this. What could the mystery be? Why would the DPRK reprocess plutonium? For nukes. It’s for nukes. Basically like …

Jeffrey and his team fear no cloud. Working with Capella Space to acquire cloud-piercing synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, the MIIS team has been monitoring eternally-cloudy Novaya Zemlya, Russia, for evidence of Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile tests. Evidence pointed to the Burevestnik test site being revived after the previous failures, and the team started utilizing radar returns …

Bad news abounds for Iranian and US returns to JCPOA compliance. Aaron and Jeffrey talk through the frustration around breakout time requirements, the timidity of the Biden administration, and the shortfalls of the wait-and-see approach.    Links of Note: The Economist article on OSINT, including Arms Control Wonk and the Slack channel, which is filled …

Matt Korda and Hans Kristensen with the Federation of American Scientists have tracked down what appears to be a second field of missile silos near Hami, Xinjiang.  Aaron, Jeffrey, and Scott gather up to discuss the rapidly increasing number of missile silos, what this means for the shell game theory, how many missiles and warheads …

American weapons systems need better names. Tom Karako, Director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, joins Jeffrey to talk about just what it is that inspires soldiers: Legendary, heroic, and historical names, not descriptive acronyms and jargon. What, are ALCM and JASSM not as sexy as Hades or …

Decker Eveleth and Jeffrey Lewis’s team at CNS have found 119 silos for ICBMs out in the deserts of China. That’s the largest expansion of PRC silos in history, by far, but it isn’t totally clear what is going on, and whether each of these Bouncy Castles of Death represents a new missile or if …

Jeffrey’s team is at it again.  This time, they (and Jonathan McDowell!) caught an unannounced (and failed) Iranian space launch attempt and have now caught what appears to be a second unannounced (and failed) Iranian space launch attempt.  The failed launch detection was covered by Zachary Cohen and Oren Liebermann at CNN, who were kind …

Is the Nuclear Posture Review something worth doing, or a massive waste of time and political capital? Jeffrey and Aaron vote “waste.” The NPR takes up a ton of time, leaves policy on autopilot during its duration, and burns a ton of bandwidth that could be used for actual reflection and policy change.  But what …

The hype is real. Maybe its a branding thing, maybe people forget ballistic missiles are a thing, maybe nobody thinks “glider force” sounds cool. But whatever the reason, people keep calling hypersonic glide vehicles fast compared to existing missile systems. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss hypersonic weapons, what people keep getting wrong about them, and why …

On April 20, an Israeli twitter user posted a video of a large smoky cloud to his Twitter account with the comment “A mysterious explosion in northern Israel.” Jeffrey and his team tracked down the “mysterious explosion,” identifying it as a solid rocket motor test for an unknown missile or space system. Aaron and Jeffrey …

North Korea has been active the past few weeks, launching a set of cruise missiles (probably just coastal defense systems) and a separate set of ballistic missiles (which look like stretched KN23 short-range ballistic missiles) a few days later. But these events were received very differently by the Biden administration and analysts. Jeffrey, Aaron, and …

Biden campaigned on rejoining the JCPOA, but some of that enthusiasm has dried up since he took office. Aaron and Jeffrey debate what’s going on, strategies for negotiating re-joining the JCPOA, and the fallacy of letting the perfect get in the way of the good as people begin to advocate for “waiting for a better …

President Biden has extended New START for five more years. But what are we going to do with those years? How to we actually advance stability? Aaron and Jeffrey talk about the steps necessary to secure stable, effective arms control treaties, the history of arms control, and the importance of tacking missile defenses alongside offensive systems. Support …

Iran unveiled a new (mostly) solid-propellant space launcher, the Zoljanah! But it looks….different than the other space launchers. Besides having a new fuel type, the Zoljanah may not have many IRGC or military fingerprints on it, indicating that the Iranian solid-propellant programs are robust and expansive. Jeffrey and Aaron talk Iranian space programs, civilian vs. …

Israel maintains a technologically advanced but understudied ballistic missile arsenal.  Jeffrey and Aaron dive into the French, South African, and American influences on the arsenal, how to model the Jericho missile families, and the history of the Israeli ballistic missile program. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

North Korea put on *another* parade, during the 8th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea.  Kim Jong Un dropped some fascinating details about what the DPRK has allegedly completed, and what they may be working on, including a possible nuclear submarine and intermediate-range cruise missile. Then, he paraded some new missile hardware, including a …

On Thursday, Dec. 12, 2019, at 8:30 a.m. Pacific Time, the U.S. Air Force, in partnership with the Strategic Capabilities Office, conducted a flight test of a prototype conventionally-configured ground-launched ballistic missile from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California.  But just what the heck did the DOD actually test? Jeffrey and team turn their analytic methods …

Nancy Pelosi has indicated that Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has assured her that there are safeguards against an “unstable president” accessing “the launch codes” and launching a nuclear strike.  Jeffrey and Aaron discuss why that is wrong (and/or illegal), what the actual launch process is, and what the political strategy …

Jeffrey and crew have been busy at work modelling the giant ICBM that the DPRK paraded in October 2020, as well as tracing out its possible industrial provenance. Aaron and Jeffrey talk through modelling methodologies, North Korean industrial espionage, and how to build robust public policies to account for uncertainty.   For our episode on the …

At the end of this awful year, Jeffry and Aaron talk about the future of arms control, the future of analytics, and the future of the pod. 2021 will have a lot going on: New START expiration or extension, new facilities in Iran, figuring out what the heck the North Koreans are doing, what’s going …

Jeffrey and Aaron share stories about the life of Dennis Gormley, renowned proliferation scholar and celebrated professor. Dennis’s work on cruise missile proliferation, tacit knowledge, and industrial expertise was foundational to the field of proliferation studies, and he was a caring, dedicated educator.  Dennis was a good friend and mentor, and is greatly missed. 

On 10/10/2020, the 75th Anniversary of the Founding of the Worker’s Party of Korea, the DPRK showed of a lot of missiles. Again. In addition to all the stuff they’ve been testing over the last two years, they introduced a new, oddly shaped solid-propellent missile, the Pukguksong-4, and what appears to be the largest TEL-based liquid …

Melissa Hanham, director of Datayo and Deputy Director of the Open Nuclear Network, joins Jeffrey and Scott to talk about Datayo, a project aimed at reducing nuclear risks and fostering a transparent, collaborative, and high-quality analytic information environment. Scott fawns over Datayo’s video annotation capabilities for military hardware tracking, and Melissa talks about how much …

Now that a few episodes have dropped, Anne and Jeffrey talk about Jeffrey’s new project, The Deal.  Jeffrey chronicles how researchers like Corey Hinderstein chased down data before satellite imagery was so easily available, Wendy Sherman’s incredible memory for names, and just how many BBs Jeffrey has in his car. The Deal tells the story …

How do we step back from the brink and reduce the very real threat that nuclear weapons continue to pose? Nuclear weapons continue to impact people’s lives, even if they are sometimes treated as historical threats of a prior era. Jeffrey and Aaron sit down with Lisa Perry and Dr. William Perry, 19th Secretary of …

In 2002, Corey Hinderstein, a young research analyst, follows a hunch after a routine press conference in Washington, D.C. The results of her scavenger hunt sparked a diplomatic crisis that stretched more than a decade, lasted through two presidencies, and ended with a deal that, depending on whom you ask, either “makes our country, and …

The Deal: The story of the Iran nuclear deal; how it came together, how it fell apart, and what that means for the rest of us. Hosted by Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.  …

In 2018, the US and the UAE conducted a joint military exercise called Diamond Tempest. While looking through still images and videos from the exercise, Jeffrey and his colleagues at CNS thought it would make a great case study.  Just how much can we learn using open source tools? They were able to piece together …

The war in Yemen has seen the highest usage of ballistic missiles since the Iraq War, and the highest usage of ballistic missile defense assets in any conflict, offering a preview of any future conflicts with Iran. Aaron and Scott talk about a new CSIS report, The Missile War in Yemen, the utility and difficulties …

Another day, another suspected nuclear facility in North Korea. Anne and Jeffrey discuss the Wollo-ri Suspected Nuclear Warhead Manufacturing Facility.  They discuss how the CNS team has monitored this site since 2015, the satellite imagery analysis that went into it, and Ankit Panda’s impressive sourcing. They also discuss the immediate pushback, claims that this site …

In a cross-over podcast with FPRI’s Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Fabian Hinz, a frequent guest on the podcast, about the recent explosions in Iran and what open source intelligence has revealed about the two incidents. You can find the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Middle East Brief at: https://www.fpri.org/multimedia/middle-east-brief/ Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

John Hudson and Paul Sonne at the Washington Post broke the story that Trump administration officials have discussed conducting additional nuclear tests in the United States.  Jeffrey and Anne discuss why this is a bad idea, how this would disproportionately benefit U.S. nuclear competitors, and the primarily political (not technical) utility of a “rapid” nuclear …

Turkey previously announced that its S400 air defense regiment would be activated and in service by the end of April, 2020, after its delivery from Russia in 2019. Since it is now May 2020, with no S400 deployment in sight, Aaron and Scott sat down with Rob Lee for an in-depth talk about what could …

The Wall Street Journal reported that “China might be secretly conducting nuclear tests with very low explosive power” based on the State Department’s 2020 Annual Compliance Report, but that is not quite what the report actually says. Jeffrey and Anne sit down to talk about open-source tracking of the Lop Nur nuclear testing site, the …

Iran launched a small satellite into orbit. But more importantly, it was Iran’s revolutionary guards, not the civilian space program, that did the launching — and with a new solid rocket motor as the second stage. Fabian Hinz joins Jeffrey to talk about the IRGC space program and break down its most recent launch. Support …

In mid-April, Russia tested a direct ascent anti-satellite missile (DA ASAT), the Nudol/PL19, against a point in space. Anti-satellite weapons are an old favorite of the pod, so Anne, Aaron, and Jeffrey meet to discuss the history of anti-satellite weapons, the U.S. negotiating strategy that led to the spread of hit-to-kill and anti-satellite weapons, and …

The International Atomic Energy Agency has questions about three sites in Iran — but Iran doesn’t feel like answering. Aaron, Anne and Jeffrey discuss the atomic archive, access to suspect facilities, and environmental sampling. Plus, there are a few things in recent IAEA reports that worry us. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Forces used to be a nearly opaque organization to all but a few open-source researchers. Now, increased availability of satellite-imagery and public media enable open-source exploitation and tracking of PRC missile forces like never before.  Decker Eveleth joins Jeffrey and Scott to discuss open-source tracking PRC missile brigades, his geolocated …

Mort Halperin a giant as an academic and a policy practitioner. And he’s working on a memoir that covers his sixty year career in foreign policy. Mort played an important role in the US decision to revert Okinawa to Japanese control without nuclear weapons — a case study Jeffrey teaches in is class on decision-making. …

Joe Biden is the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. While the popular perception of Biden is that he’s quite moderate, on nuclear issues he’s always been relatively progressive. Aaron and Jeffrey discuss Biden and bomb. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) has been very busy in the last few years, testing new high-tech missiles and standing up new launch brigades.  Superproducer Scott joins Jeffrey and Anne to talk about reports of the PLARF test launching over 100 missiles in 2019, rapidly expanding since 2017, and some of the data …

James Palmer of the UK’s Atomic Weapons Establishment joins the ACW trio to talk about the importance of 3D modelling and data visualization, including recreations of North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site and virtual reality training simulations. Links of Note, Courtesy of James Palmer: Enhanced briefings for a CTBTO On-site Inspection SnT2017  (Palmer and Stevanović). …

Iran tested a satellite launch vehicle, and it failed. But this isn’t a reason to cheer. Iran showed off a lot of goodies this month, pointing to an active solid-propellant missile program and has no said a future satellite launch is going to use a solid-propellant space launch vehicle.  This is bad news. Aaron and …

After the Iranian ballistic missile raid on U.S. forces in Iraq, the IRGC appears to have accidentally shot down a Ukrianian airliner flying out of Tehran. The Iranian government took about 3 days to admit that it was shot down, initially denying that it was shot down. Prior to the admission, the Arms Control Wonk …

As it turns out, the ACW trio thinks that Iran’s missiles are accurate. Super accurate. As Anne flies across the United States, Aaron and Jeffrey spoke about Iran’s ballistic missile strikes Ain Assad Air Base in Iraq, why the strike on Erbil may have been an outlier, and how nobody is in control of escalation. …

The ACW crew discusses the JCPOA…again. Iran has announced its 5th step away from the JCPOA. The trio discusses what that means, what it doesn’t mean, and where we go from here.  And, for your ease of reference, Iran’s Five Steps: May 2019: No longer limit stockpiles of LEU or heavy water July 2019: No …

Launch a missile, get a pod, post-INF Treaty edition.  On December 12, 2019, the U.S. Air Force and the Strategic Capabilities office tested a “prototype conventionally-configured, ground-launched ballistic missile” from Vandenberg AFB. The trio talks Twitter hot takes, the Strategic Capabilities Office, the future of U.S. missile procurement, and the future of intermediate-range ballistic missiles. …

Sohae is open for business! The ACW Gang talks North Korea’s recent engine test at Sohae and marvels (again) at the power of satellite imagery. Was this test Kim’s “Christmas Gift” to Trump? Or just a stocking stuffer?  Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

What is the future of the Open Skies Treaty? The Arms Control Wonk trio talk the Open Skies Treaty, the conspiracy theories that now permeate the debate about Russian aircraft, and why the treaty matters. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

  Iranian President Hasan Rouhani has announce yet another “step” away from the JCPOA, the fourth this year.  As Iran resumes feeding UF6 into some of the cascades at the Fordow Enrichment Plant, Anne and Jeffrey discuss the steps that led us here and the prospect for preserving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Support us over at …

Everybody loves a parade, especially one with missiles and drones.   Superproducer Scott joins Jeffrey and Anne to discuss the new hardware displayed in early October, and how great it is to watch the PRC’s flag-raising ceremony. Scott has waited seven years for this parade, so that he can finally get a legitimate high-resolution shot of …

The New York Times reported recently that US officials are considering removing US nuclear weapons from Turkey. Aaron knows a bit about this, so Jeffrey called in from his car on the road to San Francisco, and Anne called in from a foggy Monterey to talk about nuclear weapons in Turkey. Producer’s Note: Due to …

It is finally here! Two years after seeing posters for the Pukguksong-3 during Kim Jong Un’s visit to the Chemical Material Institute of the Academy of Defense Science in 2017, the North Korea has finally tested the next generation of its submarine launched ballistic missiles.  Joseph Dempsey of the International Institute of Strategic Studies returns to talk …

Iran may have just rocketed oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. The ACW trio asks what else is new, after time spent analyzing Qiam strikes on Riyadh. With tensions increasing in the Gulf, and questions about a potential US strike to punish Iran for its cruise missile strike, Aaron, Anne, and Jeffrey are joined by Fabian Hinz …

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking just days before an election, revealed an alleged new nuclear site in Iran, dubbed Abadeh.  On this week’s episode, the ACW trio talk about the revelation, what the satellite pictures show may be happening at the site, and why Iran’s razing of the site doesn’t match up to the …

Russia tested something and maybe kinda sorta told the truth about a subsequent spike in radiation.  What happened? who knows? In this episode, the ACW trio discuss the explosion in Nenoksa and why it may have been a test to support the Skyfall (Burevestnik) program that went wrong.   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

During one of the Democratic Presidential primary debates, Elizabeth Warren and Governor Whats-his-name sparred over nuclear weapons, no-first use and deproliferation. Aaron, Anne and Jeffrey discuss the use of jargon in gate-keeping and the merits of various proposals relating to no first use. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Jeffrey and Anne attended the CTBTO’s 2019 Science and Technology Conference in Vienna, which means this is another Wienerpod! Aaron calls in to get the lowdown on the state of the CTBT and the evolving technological environment for nuclear test detection.  Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

  Turkey used a ballistic missile, the Bora, for the first time in combat. Launch a missile, get a pod! Aaron, Anne and Jeffrey discuss the Bora, geolocating the launch site, and the state of missile proliferation in the Middle East.   Our 2017 episode on the Bora.   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The United States intelligence community, or a portion of it, has concluded that Russia is conducting very low-yield nuclear tests. Aaron and Jeffrey discuss past allegations of nuclear testing, open source monitoring of Russia’s nuclear test site at Novaya Zemlya and how the Trump Administration might change its mind on the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban …

If see any news coverage about missile threats in the Middle East, nine times out of ten it is Iran’s missiles that are in the news. But Iran is just one of many countries in the region. Egypt, Israel, Turkey Saudi Arabia and Syria all produce, to one degree or another, their own missiles. And …

A nuclear archive. JCPOA news. B-52 bomber task forces. A naval armada. And Scuds on ships. What could go wrong? To break down all things Iran, Jeffrey and Aaron spoke about the latest happenings in and with Iran.   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Launch a missile, get a podcast. North Korea launched a short-range missile over the weekend and a Planet satellite was there to see it. Jeffrey and Anne discuss the one in a million picture, the missile itself and what it might mean for the final fully verified denuclearization of North Korea as agreed (or not) …

The Trump Administration approved some 810s to Saudi Arabia.  And INVAP is building a low power research reactor in Riyadh.  What’s an 810?  What’s INVAP?  It’s complicated.  You’ll just have to listen to the podcast as Jeffrey and Aaron discuss how people are over-reacting to the latest Saudi nuclear news while also noting that it is time …

Test a missile, get a pod. Kill a satellite? Get a podcast with a special guest. Ankit Panda joins Aaron and Jeffrey to discuss India’s recent anti-satellite test. Also, Jeffrey says he told you so. (Again.) Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The summit in Hanoi was a bust.  New podcast co-host Anne Pellegrino joins Jeffrey and Aaron to discuss, as Joshua Pollack calls it, the Scapegoat Rodeo in Hanoi.     Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The Chairman of the Committee on Oversight and Reform wants answers to allegations about influence peddling and a grandiose plan to sell Saudi Arabia up to 40 nuclear reactors. This week, Aaron and Jeffrey dig into the interim staff report detailing the allegations, what the purported IP3 plan really means, and safeguards on civil nuclear …

Judging from Twitter, the Munich Security Conference is talking about the demise of the INF Treaty.  Jeffrey, back in California after his sojourn to Vermont and Aaron revisit INF pods of the past to focus on what really matters: Getting Taylor Swift to cover Nena’s 99 Luftballoons.   Previous Podcast Episodes about this Topic:   INF Basing …

Andrea hosts one last KCN-eh? before heading off to the Great White North. Jeffrey joins in to talk about North Korea’s other developments from January, including the site of the second Trump-Kim summit, U.S. Special Representative Stephen Beigun’s speech at Stanford, and how to mimic denuclearization without denuclearizing.   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Satellite images taken by Planet Labs appear to show that Saudi Arabia has constructed a plant to manufacture solid propellant ballistic missiles. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the CNS team’s latest find. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Russia tested a hypersonic missile, or at least they claimed to. As of now, Putin and Russian media have told us a lot, but what do we really know about Avangard? Aaron and Jeffrey are joined by James Acton from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace to discuss hypersonics, missile defense, and what Russia’s Avangard may …

Jeffrey and Aaron return from the holidays to talk about … North Korea.  Kim Jong Un gave his traditional New Year’s  Day speech. On the first day of 2017, Kim signaled the ICBM test that was to come. And on the first day of 2018, he hinted at the diplomatic thaw that would bring “love …

The CNS OSINT team did it again. While doing what one does on the weekend, looking at DPRK missile bases, Jeffrey and his team found a new missile base. In this week’s episode, Aaron and Jeffrey talk through the finding, Josh Pollack’s meta op-ed on what OSINT means in today’s media environment, and how OSINT …

A Canadian discusses the month’s North Korea-related developments with some special guests. For November, Andrea is joined by Cristina Varriale of the Royal United Services Institute, and Hamish Macdonald of the Korea Risk Group. They talk through announcements about postponed meetings, joint military exercises, inter-Korean projects and Chinese border infrastructure. Oh, and puppies.    Links of Note: …

India has some nuclear naval news, with its defense minister claiming a successful “first deterrent patrol.” What does this mean for Pakistan and nuclear dynamics in the Indian Ocean?   Aaron sits down with friends of the pod Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang to talk about the India-Pakistan relationship, India’s ballistic missile subs, and Pakistan’s …

With the US on the precipice of withdrawing from the INF, all eyes have turned to China and its large number of INF range missiles. The think tank community has followed and a bevy of think pieces on basing modes in Asia have been published. On this week’s episode, Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the …

A Canadian reviews the month’s North Korea news together with a special guest. Andrea and Ramon Pacheco-Pardo, the Korea Foundation-Free University Brussels Korea Chair, look at Pompeo’s latest visit to Pyongyang, examine the outcomes of Moon Jae-in’s European tour, and talk about the North Korean middleman now on an FBI Most Wanted poster. Links of …

The end of arms control, or a sub-culture run amok? In today’s special, live-recorded edition of the Arms Control Wonk podcast, Aaron and Jeffrey talk about the end of the INF, John Bolton’s motivations, and the reasons behind the US pull-out (aka the Stormy Daniels). Previous Podcast Episodes about this Topic: Tightening the Screws on the INF …

Aaron and Jeffrey return to the topic to discuss the potential for a New Start extension and what it could mean for the future of the US-Russian relationship.   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

US Ambassador to NATO, Kay Bailey Hutchinson, made some news. And not in a good way. She was trying to say that the US would develop countervailing capabilities — something that started under the Obama Administration and that almost no one disagrees with. But she mangled the quote and, in doing so, reinforced Russian paranoia …

Andrea is joined again by John Hemmings, Director of Asia Studies at the Henry Jackson Society, to talk about the major developments in North Korea relations during September. They consider Pyongyang’s tamer military parade, examine the optics and outcomes of Moon Jae-in’s trip to North Korea, and look at the way those outcomes are being …

Andrea discusses friction between Europe and the United States over the Iran nuclear deal with Justine Walker, Director of Sanctions at UK Finance. They review European engagement in the Iranian market over the last two years, consider the EU’s reaction to Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement, and examine the implications for companies now caught between two …

In today’s episode, Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the 2020 Commission and its relationship with how we are conditioned to think about nuclear weapons. The podcast is filled with spoilers (you’ve been warned), but attempts to use the book — and one of the main characters, President Donald Trump — to discuss nuclear war, American nuclear policy, the …

In today’s podcast, Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the geolocation work that underpinned Jeffrey’s research for his novel and how open source investigations can be leveraged to inform analysis. Links of Note: Previous Arms Control Wonk Podcast episodes on South Korea’s missile arsenal: South Korea’s Missile Arsenal Expands The Hyunmoo-2C: South Korea’s 800km Missile Jeffrey’s new …

It’s a family pod today! Andrea, Aaron, and Jeffrey review July’s new North Korean developments. They dive into the developments at Sohae Satellite Launching Grounds, sanctions enforcement, and the repatriation of POW/KIA remains from the Korean War.  Links of Note: Treasury’s press release of sanctions ordered against the Russian Agrosoyuz Commercial Bank. Imagery analysis from …

Ellen Nakashima and Joby Warrick have a bombshell story about North Korea producing one, possible two, Hwasong-15 ICBMs at its Sanumdong facility.  Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the role that MIIS and open source played in corroborating the report. This episode brought to you by Jeffrey’s new novel, The 2020 Commission Report.   Links of Note: …

KANGSON.  We have the (probable) location of North Korea’s original enrichment site: Kangson, now called Chollima. This is probably the spot where the DPRK has been enriching uranium since the early 2000’s, which has previously not been openly identified!  Jeffrey, Grace Liu, and Dave Schmerler combed over information dropped by friend-of-the-pod Ankit Panda. Jeffrey, Aaron, and …

A Canadian reviews the last month’s news with two special guests. Andrea talks to CNS Senior Research Associate Melissa Hanham and FAS Adjunct Fellow Ankit Panda as they go through the trajectory of U.S./DPRK diplomacy after the Singapore Summit, parse through the differences between U.S and DPRK public statements, and developments within the U.S./ROK Alliance.

Jeffrey spent the past week making Singapore Slings but it didn’t help dull the pain. The conversation then turned to the summit and ended with a conversation about the sustainability of summits without substance and what the two sides can do in the future to settle on an actual agenda for talks. Jeffrey and Aaron …

Back in March, Putin said that Russia has been testing a nuclear-powered cruise missile and showed a little bit of video footage. Throughout April and May, stories have come out questioning the success of these tests. Jeffrey and his team at CNS have been peaking into the test site and trying to figure out what …

This is a full end-to-end OSINT episode, buckle up.  Using satellite imagery, SAR data, Farsi-language television coverage, one rocket scientist’s favorite color, and one very important box, the team at CNS/MIIS tracked down a second solid-propellant rocket production facility in Iran. We suspect it may be moving towards ICBM research.  Scott ventures out to California …

A Canadian reviews the last month’s news with a special guest. Andrea talks to Hamish Macdonald from NK News about what went boom at Punggye-ri, recaps the diplomatic rollercoaster ride that was May, and ponders the Max Thunder joint military exercises (during an actual thunderstorm).  Links of note:  Will Ripley’s Instagram snaps from his visit to Wonsan …

What is going on with the Trump-Kim summit following the recent cancellation of a DPRK-ROK meeting? Will Trump and Kim meet? And how does John Bolton fit into all of this? Today, Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the latest twists and turns in the run-up to the Singapore summit, and raise broader questions about denuclearization and …

Kim Jong Un said he is closing the nuclear test site at Punggye-ri. But if outside inspectors and exports aren’t allowed in, it could just be a PR stunt with no substantive contribution to “denuclearization.” Jeffrey and Aaron talk about what this means for North Korea, why inspectors and outside experts need to be allowed …

A Canadian reviews the last few weeks of North Korea news with a special guest. Andrea chats with Antoine Bondaz from the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris. They dissect the optics and outcomes of the recent inter-Korean summit, analyse the responses, and look at some of the stories you may have missed amongst the flashbulbs. Links …

Bibi showed off Iran’s bomb. And its pretty crappy. The slide show added some titillating details to what the world already knew about Iran’s nuclear weapons program and, in doing so, made the case for why the JCPOA is so important. The real news was not the documents or their provenance, but what they revealed …

A Canadian reviews the last few weeks of North Korea news with a special guest. Andrea talks to Ramon Pacheco-Pardo from King’s College London about DPRK summit mania. They cover the recent high-level visits to Pyongyang, Beijing and Washington, consider North Korean pledges to refrain from certain nuclear and missile testing, and debate whether this …

Haaretz dropped an incredible article with new details about the 2007 Israeli air strike on the nascent Syrian nuclear reactor at Al Kibar. So we thought it would be a good opportunity to interrupt Jeffrey’s working vacation to talk about Al Kibar, the North Korean nuclear connection, and how our understanding of the event has …

A Canadian reviews the last month’s North Korea news with two special guests, Jeffrey and Aaron. It’s a family pod! Andrea discusses the new UN Panel of Experts report on North Korea’s illicit arms dealing, whether the DPRK is helping reconstitute the Syrian chemical weapons program, and some long awaited discussions on Myanmar’s acquisition of …

What is Russia’s nuclear doctrine? Jeffrey talks to Dr. Olga Oliker about Russian nuclear doctrine and developments. Unfortunately, she speaks Russian, which turns out to he really inconvenient for a lot of people’s theories.  Jeffrey and Olga discuss whether escalate to deescalate is a thing and Putin’s awesome new menagerie of terror weapons.  Dr. Oliker’s hosts a podcast, …

The Russian chemical weapons attack in Salisbury is, sadly, not the first assassination to take place on UK soil. Jeffrey and Aaron spoke about Russia’s use of a Novichok nerve agent, what this act says about a return of Soviet patterns of behavior, and some policy options.   Links of Note: The Stimson Center report, Chemical Weapons …

President Trump announced that he’s going to meet with Kim Jong Un. He seems to think that Kim Jong Un is giving up his weapons. Kim Jong Un seems to think that Trump is recognizing North Korea as a nuclear power. What could possibly go wrong?  Jeffrey and Aaron discuss before Sarah Sanders walks this …

A delegation from South Korea visited Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang.  After a sumptuous lunch and what looked like a little booze, over-the-top happy Kim Jong Un waved goodbye as the South Korean delegation drove off with promises. Aaron and Jeffrey talk about the ROK’s post-lunch (not launch, for once) statement, the history of DPRK …

Two Canadians review the last month of North Korean developments as they try to ignore Canada’s Olympic performance in curling and hockey. Andrea talks to Matt Korda about Olympic diplomacy, DPRK proliferation networks, maritime deception practices, and the most recent set of sanctions.   Links of Note: The transcript of the 2008 Burmese military delegation …

Russian president Validimir Putin presented his annual address yesterday. He showed off a bunch of new or recent nuclear weapons systems, designed to defeat US missile defenses. The weirdest idea of all is a nuclear power cruise missile with global range. You read that right. Nuclear powered. Aaron, Jeffrey, and Scott convene to discuss Russia’s …

We’re back. After a brief hiatus, Jeffrey and Aaron return from their myriad trips. The show documents Aaron and superproducer Scott’s visit to missile central down at joint-base Anacostia, where the two got an up close and personal viewing of the Qiam/Burkan 2-H and other assorted Iranian made goodies on display. Jeffrey then filled Aaron …

A Canadian reviews the last two months’ North Korea news with a special guest. Andrea talks to Scott LaFoy for a whirlwind tour of December and January’s developments. They cover Kim Jong Un’s New Years Address, the Vancouver Foreign Ministers Meeting, and those pesky ship-to-ship transfers the North Koreans are so fond of these days. …

India launched the Agni-V intermediate-range ballistic missile. Launch a missile, get a pod. Aaron is skiing in Vail, so The Diplomat‘s Ankit Panda joins Jeffrey to discuss India’s nuclear and missile programs from rail mobile missiles to the guy who flooded India’s only ballistic missile submarine. Links of Note: Ankit’s Twitter thread on Agni test imagery. Ankit and …

A draft of the Trump Administration’s Nuclear Posture Review has leaked — and its a doozy.  Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the history of these reviews and recommendations to develop a new sea-launched cruise missile and a variable yield warhead for the Trident D5 submarine launched ballistic missile. Links of Note: The Huffpost article that originally leaked the …

The Trump Administration is naming names, confirming what Jeffrey has long said ? that the new cruise missile Russia is building in violation of the 1987 INF Treaty is the 9M729, which is known in the US as the SSC-8 Screwdriver. Aaron and Jeffrey discuss Russia’s violation of the INF Treaty, offering a deep dive …

We usually avoid chasing Trump’s tweets but when the President of the United States says his button is bigger than Kim Jong Un’s … well, we’re not made of stone. Aaron and Jeffrey talk about whether Trump is bluffing and what the disarray in the White House says about policy process issues.   Links of …

Ambassador Nikki Haley gave quite the presentation a few weeks ago. Standing in front of two Qiam/Burkan-2H missile pieces, the US Ambassador the UN called out Iran for its proliferation activities in the Middle East. Two weeks, Aaron and Jeffrey talked at length about the missile. In this episode, Aaron circles back to the other …

Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera announced that Tokyo wants to acquire a pair of long-range cruise missiles — the 500 km-range Joint Strike Missile from Norway and the 1000 km range JASSM-ER — to arm the country’s new F-35.  Aaron and Jeffrey discussion the implications for Article 9 of Japan’s constitution and stability in the region. …

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley gave a dog-and-pony show with debris from the recent Houthi missile strikes against Saudi Arabia. Jeffrey and Aaron go over the debris, explaining why the U.S. thinks the Yemeni Burkan-2H is actually the Iranian Qiam and asking what that means.  Links of Note: DVIDS Hub link to …

“A shot was just taken by Iran, in my opinion, at Saudi Arabia. And our system knocked it down,” Donald Trump told reporters. “That’s how good we are. Nobody makes what we make and now we’re selling it all over the world.” Except it missed. Or maybe never even fired. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the …

A Canadian reviews the month’s North Korea news with a special guest. For November, Andrea talks to John Hemmings, the Director of the Asia Studies Centre at the Henry Jackson Society. They dig into major stories about North Korean defectors and the Kim Jong Nam assassination, and consider the stunning views from Cathay Pacific flights.   Links …

North Korea tested a new ICBM called the Hwasong-15. We’ll keep these show notes brief. Its frickin’ huge. Aaron, Jeffrey, and Scott discuss the missile, the launch site, the truck that carried it, and its oh-so-roomy payload. Links of Note: Dave Schmerler compiled the KCNA imagery into one big flickr album.  

“Liddle Bob Corker” and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a hearing on the President’s authority to use nuclear weapons. A bipartisan panel testified that “it’s fine.” But is it? Aaron and Jeffrey discuss Trump, the bomb, and President’s War Powers.   Links of Note: C-SPAN video of the entire Senate Foreign Relations Committee Hearing …

Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, recently stated that Iran has no need to extend the range of its missiles beyond 2,000 km. With debates about Iran’s missile program affecting the debate about the Iran nuclear deal, Aaron and Jeffrey take a survey of regional missile proliferation from Egypt to …

The US and South Korea agreed to revise the missile guidelines that have limited South Korea’s missile programs since the 1970s. Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the origin of those limits, their evolution, and the impact of missile proliferation on the Korean Peninsula.   Links of Note: Arms Control Wonk article about South Korea’s Anheung Proving …

A Canadian reviews the month’s North Korea news with a special guest. For September, Andrea talks to Alison Evans — deputy head of Asia-Pacific country risk at IHS Markit. They revisit UN General Assembly drama, developments in alliance politics, and North Korea’s stunning victory at Disney puns.  

The New York Times has a splashy interactive editorial, “Trump’s Nuclear Arsenal.” It’s good, but gets a few things wrong — things that matter like Mutual Assured Destruction, Robert McNamara’s famous thought experiment on sizing US nuclear forces, and how the US targets nuclear weapons. Also, they misuse decimate. Aaron and Jeffrey talk through the problems with …

President Trump said each of the missile defense interceptors at the Ground-based Midcourse Defense site in Alaska has a 97% chance of shooting down a North Korean missile and that two would have a 100% chance. Statistics don’t work like that, at least that’s not how it was taught where Jeffrey and Aaron went to school. We …

No, Hilary Clinton did not sell America’s uranium to Russia. Aaron and Jeffrey attempt to patiently discuss the Uranium One purchase of Willow Creek uranium mine, the US firm that bribed Russian officials to win trucking contracts, and why this particular conspiracy theory is so prevalent in American political discourse.   Links of Note: The …

Donald Trump announced a new “strategy”  — loosely defined — for confronting Iran. Trump also will refuse to certify that Iran is implementing its commitments under the Iran nuclear deal, aka the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), throwing the issue back to Congress and (possibly) starting a second nuclear crisis.  Jeffrey and Aaron discuss why …

ICAN won the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize for its work on “for its work to draw attention to the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of any use of nuclear weapons and for its ground-breaking efforts to achieve a treaty-based prohibition of such weapons.” Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the prize, the treaty to ban nuclear weapons, and efforts …

Donald Trump told the United Nations that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (aka the Iran nuclear deal aka the Vienna Plan aka der Weinerplan) between Iran and the so-called E3/U-3 “Is an embarrassment to the United States, and I don’t think you’ve heard the last of it — believe me.” Aaron and Jeffrey talk …

Proliferators not only need to move goods around the world to support their WMD and missile programs, they need to move money too.   How do they get into the international financial system undetected? Can banks do more to stop them? Who is leading the global charge on countering proliferation finance? Andrea talks to Tom Keatinge, a …

The Trump Administration is reportedly mulling the development of new “low yield” nuclear weapons in its Nuclear Posture Review. But is this really new? Or is it that we just don’t trust the Trump Administration with sharp objects, let alone the bomb.   Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the recent history of proposals for new nuclear weapons, including …

In addition to a new ICBM and thermonuclear weapon, North Korea is also developing new class of solid-fueled missiles.   Joseph Dempsey from the International Institute of Strategic Studies joins Jeffrey in a special three part episode to discuss the Pukguksong-1 submarine launched ballistic missile, the land-based Pukguksong-2 medium range ballistic missile, and Kim Jong Un’s visit to …

The final part in our three part series! Episode 1 can be found here. Episode 2 is here. This addendum episode includes discussion on new developments, the DPRK’s ‘Site B’ for SLBMs, and the Golf submarines. In addition to a new ICBM and thermonuclear weapon, North Korea is also developing new class of solid-fueled missiles. …

  In addition to a new ICBM and thermonuclear weapon, North Korea is also developing new class of solid-fueled missiles.   Joseph Dempsey from the International Institute of Strategic Studies joins Jeffrey in a special two part episode to discuss the Pukguksong-1 submarine launched ballistic missile, the land-based Pukguksong-2 medium range ballistic missile, and Kim Jong Un’s visit …

Jeffrey was lounging at the beach with his phone off. You know what the means: NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR TEST TIME! North Korea released images of Kim Jong Un inspecting what looked like a two-stage thermonuclear weapon and then, before analysts could pretend it was just a pinata, kablooie! North Korea detonated its largest nuclear explosive …

The relationship between the United States and Russia is in the toilet.  The FY 2018 National Defense Authorization Act contains a number of provisions that call into question the viability of the INF and New START treaties, as well as the future of the entire bilateral arms control process. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss Russian nuclear …

In all the squinting at shiny missile bits, the bigger picture on North Korea has gotten a bit lost. Jeffrey and Andrea talk about some of the less pointy topics like new sanctions on North Korea, mollusks, and the reaction in Japan and South Korea.    Links of Note U.S. Fact Sheet on Resolution 2371 …

The fourth part in our The Donald and The Nuclear series. The crazy lunatic with the odd hair style and long-range nuclear weapons is talking about “fire and fury”.  So naturally North Korea’s Kim Jong Un threatened to fire four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range  ballistic missiles into the waters around Guam, saying that Donald Trump was “bereft …

Amidst all the hoopla surrounding North Korea’s ICBM, Iran launched a Simorgh, a rocket designed to put a satellite into space. Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the Iran’s space launch program, how it relates to the nuclear program. And, of course, the Dudes from the SHIG. Links of Note: Detailed video of the Simorgh and the NTI …

The DPRK just launched a looooong range missile. According to podfriend Ankit Panda, it went farther, higher, and farther than the July 4th Hwasong-14 launch (with a data refresher here, courtesy of noted seersucker suit aficionado Shea Cotton) Jeffrey and Aaron knock out a snap episode with very first reactions to a launch that literally happened while we were …

The second half of yesterday’s Banning the Bomb III. Make sure to listen to that one first.    122 countries just adopted the Treaty banning nuclear weapons, in the same week that North Korea tested an ICBM.    Andrea, Gaukhar, and Beatrice Fihn from the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons continue their discussion of the Treaty on …

122 countries just adopted a treaty banning nuclear weapons, in the same week that North Korea tested an ICBM. Andrea, Gaukhar, and Beatrice Fihn from the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons talk about what made the cut for the final treaty, debate some of the implications, and evaluate whether diplomats are most like a …

No one has better sources in the U.S. government when it comes to North Korea’s missile program than the Diplomat’s Ankit Panda.  He joins Jeffrey and Scott to discuss the Hwasong-12, Hwasong-14, a very strange North Korean concert, and Ankit shares some never-before-released data on the Hwasong-12 and some KN designations.  This podcast is a …

  Test a missile, get a pod. North Korea tested a missile. The big one. An ICBM. To discuss recent events, Aaron, Jeffrey, and Scott talk about the KN-20/Hwasong-14, how we got here, and what we know about the missile. Links of Note: The pod about the Hwasong-12, the immediate precursor to the Hwasong-14, including …

  South Korea tested the 800km Hyunmoo-2C ballistic missile … from a barge! New President Moon Jae-in was in attendance, resulting in some geolocation goodies. Aaron and Jeffrey talk about using open source information to track the interesting, but under-studied, South Korean missile program.   Links of Note: A series of various twitter threads from …